Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD:The Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad, in collaboration with the Center for Security Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR), has launched a landmark edited volume titled “Strategic Reckoning: Perspectives on Deterrence and Escalation Post-Pahalgam – May 2025.”The high-profile event brought together diplomats, experts, scholars, journalists, senior officials and students, said a press release issued on Tuesday.Edited by Dr. Rabia Akhtar, the volume provides a comprehensive analysis of the May 2025 crisis—widely regarded as one of the most dangerous confrontations in South Asia in decades. The contributors examine the fragility of deterrence, the risks posed by compressed escalation timelines, and the catastrophic consequences narrowly averted.The book underscores how Pakistan, despite grave provocations, exercised restraint and employed calibrated responses to prevent further escalation. Collectively, the work challenges the normalization of abnormal conflict dynamics.Ambassador Jauhar Saleem, President IRS, argued that India’s coercive policies towards its neighbors—including Nepal and Sri Lanka—fuel instability in South Asia and weaken regional institutions such as SAARC, which could have become a vehicle for fostering regional cooperation and prosperity, but for India’s hubris and hegemonic designs. He cautioned that India’s quest for strategic dominance risks diplomatic isolation and long-term setbacks to its own interests.Lt. Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Advisor, National Command Authority, emphasized Pakistan’s tri-services’ readiness, operational proficiency, and the establishment of the Army Rocket Force Command as evidence of a credible deterrence posture.He underscored India’s military shortcomings, Pakistan’s measured response, and the broader geopolitical implications, concluding that Pakistan had successfully restored deterrence and strategic equilibrium through coordinated tri-service operations.Ambassador Masood Khan, former President of AJK, identified the Pahalgam attack as a critical flashpoint, highlighting the enduring centrality of the Kashmir dispute to regional instability. He warned that neglecting Kashmiri grievances would perpetuate recurring crises.Dr. Rabia Akhtar, the editor, characterized the May 2025 crisis as a perilous destabilization of deterrence, where India sought to impose a ‘new normal’ of pre-emptive strikes.She argued that this behavior must instead be recognized as a ‘new abnormal,’ deviating from established crisis management practices under nuclear conditions.She underscored Pakistan’s calibrated retaliation as an exemplar of responsible deterrence in contrast to India’s imprudent adventurism, cautioning against normalizing brinkmanship.Khalid Banuri, former DG Arms Control and Disarmament, SPD, analyzed the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) performance, detailing its rapid mobilization, neutralization of Indian strikes, and demonstration of air superiority through precise counter-air operations.He stressed that PAF’s measured yet resolute actions undermined India’s coercive objectives, showcasing the high costs of escalation.Dr. Salma Malik, Associate Professor at QAU, highlighted the adverse spillover effects of such crises on regional actors beyond India and Pakistan, noting economic disruptions, refugee flows, and heightened security risks.She called for multilateral crisis management frameworks to give smaller regional states a voice and distribute the burden of maintaining peace.Leading Defense Analyst Ejaz Haider examined the role of Indian media in shaping conflict narratives during the May 2025 crisis. He highlighted how sensationalism, misinformation, and triumphalist propaganda framed the conflict as spectacle, fueling domestic escalation pressures, distorting realities, and obstructing accountability. He warned that narrative warfare can exacerbate military crises.
